MSPTM 2019 Annual Scientific Conference
13 - 14 March 2019
InterContinental Kuala Lumpur

Abstract

Title

TEMPORAL AND GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF DENGUE INFECTION IN CHILDREN IN CIREBON, INDONESIA

Type
Oral Presentation
Theme
Scaling Up Efforts in Tropical Disease and Vector Control through Evidence-Based Research
Topic
Dengue

Authors

Main Author
Endang Puji Astuti1
Presenting Author
Endang Puji Astuti1
Co-Author
Pandji Wibawa Dewantara1
Heni Prasetyowati1
Mara Ipa1
Cucu Herawati2

Authors' Institution

Department / Institution / Country
Ministry of Health of Indonesia / Pangandaran Unit for Health Research and Development, National Institute of Health Research and Deve / Indonesia1
School of Public Health / Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Kesehatan Cirebon / Indonesia2
Content
Abstract Content

Background: Cirebon district is the area where dengue infection exhibiting an upsurge trend since 2010. The highest outbreak was reported in 2016 affecting more than 1600 children. A study was conducted to explore the temporal variability of dengue outbreak in children populations in Cirebon during 2011-2017, and to assess the effects of climatic and environmental factor on dengue incidence. Additionally, the spatial pattern of dengue incidence and high-risk villages were investigated.

Methods: We analyzed 4981 dengue cases in children reported during 2011 to 2017. Seasonal decomposition analysis was carried out to examine the annual seasonality. Generalized linear model (GLM) was used to assess associations between climate, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and monthly dengue incidence. Global Moran’s I and local indicator of spatial association (LISA) analysis was performed to detect clustering in incidence and to identify high-risk villages.

Results: Obvious epidemic period was observed with peak occurred every January/February. After adjusting the seasonality, temperature at lag of 2 months (incidence rate ratio, IRR=1.326; 95% confidence interval, 95% CI:1.270-1.383, P<0.001), rainfall at one month lag (IRR=0.999, 95% CI:0.999-0.999, P<0.001) and NDVI (lag 0) (IRR=2.134, 95% CI: 1.450-3.142, P<0.001) was associated with dengue incidence. The distribution of incidence of dengue in children was spatially varied and clustered at village level across Cirebon. Total of 38 significant high-rate clusters were identified and mainly located in northern part of Cirebon

Conclusions: Our analysis demonstrated strong association between dengue incidence, rainfall, temperature and NDVI, highlighting the importance of climatic and environmental factor on the temporal variability of dengue incidence. In addition, our study identified hotspots of dengue at village-level across Cirebon, suggesting that interventions should be carried out in that identified high-risk villages. These findings could be a good foundation for developing temporal and spatial early warning system to support dengue control program in Cirebon.
Keywords: dengue, spatial analysis, children, Indonesia, GIS, climate, temporal
Requires Audio or Video system for Presentation?: No